The potential ban of TikTok in 2025 could reshape the social media ecosystem. As many have likely seen, America faces a social media plain with no TikTok – or rather, no TikTok as we know it.
This weekend, on January 19, the US Supreme Court is set to rule on a law requiring TikTok to either sell to a US buyer or face a ban in the country. Following this proposed ban, TikTok may remain on devices but will be unavailable for download from app stores. Without updates, the app will become increasingly dysfunctional. If ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, sells to an American buyer, the platform’s signature algorithm—the engine behind its hyper-personalized and addictive experience – may transfer with it. Yet, even with the algorithm intact, TikTok without its original creative essence would likely feel like a shadow of its former self.
These are the facts. They’ve been widely covered. Let’s now ask: what does this potential ban mean for the marketing landscape? Is it, in fact, that consequential? And will a TikTok ban affect the social media landscape as much as people predict?
We think not.
An absence of TikTok might be momentarily disruptive, but not for long. Users will disperse, migrate, and move on to the next best thing.
Where Will Users Go?
Given the overlap in audience demographics, Snapchat, YouTube and Instagram will likely absorb a significant portion of TikTok’s user base. But there’s another contender making waves: RedNote.
Enter RedNote: A Refuge for the “TikTok Refugees”
In the past month, RedNote has become the top downloaded app in the US. Much like TikTok, it combines short-form video content with e-commerce capabilities. Owned by Shanghai-based Xingyin Information Technology, RedNote boasts over 300 million monthly users. It’s familiar, yet distinct enough to attract curiosity and attention.
However, RedNote’s Chinese ownership could be a double-edged sword. If concerns about data privacy and security are the core reasons for TikTok’s ban, RedNote’s similarities could make it a problematic alternative. For instance, the app reportedly collects users’ IP addresses, raising similar questions about data sharing and surveillance. It’s a lateral move rather than a forward one.
The Evolving Social Landscape
The potential TikTok ban will undeniably affect consumer behaviour. Many users no longer treat social platforms purely as sources of entertainment. Increasingly, they serve as tools for search and discovery, often at the start of a user’s decision-making journey. For marketers, this shift underscores the importance of adapting to new platforms and strategies quickly.
While many TikTok users might flock to RedNote, the broader social media landscape will likely adapt faster than expected. Consider the rapid transitions of the past: MySpace gave way to Facebook, which evolved into today’s diverse ecosystem of apps. Social media is constantly reinventing itself, and this time will be no different.
What Will Be the Next Shining Star?
Will a brand-new platform rise to fill the void? Or will existing giants like Instagram, YouTube Shorts, or even RedNote capture the displaced audience? One thing is clear: adaptability will be key. Leveraging high-quality consumer data to spot trends early will separate winners from losers in the race to replace TikTok.
Our Recommendation
Brands and marketers must remain agile. Build a multi-platform presence and ensure you’re prepared to pivot as user behaviours evolve. Staying informed about emerging trends and consumer preferences will be crucial for maintaining relevance.
Here is what ROAST’s Aimee Metcalf, Content Organic Performance Lead, has to say on the subject:
“The potential TikTok ban will be problematic for brands targeting the Gen Z audience or looking to drive overall brand awareness in the US. However, regardless of whether TikTok is removed in the US, the global need for short form video and user generated content will still remain a priority for brands in 2025.We know users are continuing to increasingly favour short form video content as part of their search journey (particularly during discovery) across various platforms, not just TikTok. Short form video content will remain an opportunity for brands to reach their target audiences through not only Google searches but socials such as:
- YouTube (shorts)
- Instagram (reels)
- Facebook (reels)
- LinkedIn (video feed)
Short-form video content is here to stay, and brands should continue investing efforts here to drive long term growth. Video platforms come and go (much like Vine) and video formats will likely shift, but as it stands, short form video content is here to stay and shouldn’t be neglected by brands in the wake of the potential TikTok ban.”
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